US Department of Energy wants 20% power by wind by 2030

This is an example of the magnitude of the problem with wind power.

http://www.windpoweringamerica.gov/pdfs/20_percent_wind_2.pdf

This report wants the US to achieve 20% of their power by wind within the next 20 years. This is a similar goal for Ontario, though our size is obviously smaller, the scale of the ramp up would be relatively the same.

The goal is to have 230gigawatts of power by wind. What is interesting is the report does not note the number of turbines needed, nor the costs. It's simple enough to do.

The current output is 11.4gigawatts of capacity. Understand that capacity is not physical output, it's name plate. Turbines operate at less than 18% name plate 50% of the time.

To achieve that 230gW from the current 11.4gW would require a growth rate of construction of 16%. Now compare that to the US economy barely at 1% right now, 3% before the recession.

But this is the numbers:

Year	GW	1.5mW turbines per year	@18% name plate	3mW turbines per year	@18% name plate	1.5mW per day	3mW per day	@ $3million for each 1.5mW
2008	11.4	7,600	41,800	3,800	20,900	115	57	$ 125,400,000,000
2009	13.2	8,816	48,488	4,408	24,244	133	66	$ 145,464,000,000
2010	15.3	10,227	56,246	5,113	28,123	154	77	$ 168,738,240,000
2011	17.8	11,863	65,245	5,931	32,623	179	89	$ 195,736,358,400
2012	20.6	13,761	75,685	6,880	37,842	207	104	$ 227,054,175,744
2013	23.9	15,963	87,794	7,981	43,897	241	120	$ 263,382,843,863
2014	27.8	18,517	101,841	9,258	50,921	279	140	$ 305,524,098,881
2015	32.2	21,479	118,136	10,740	59,068	324	162	$ 354,407,954,702
2016	37.4	24,916	137,038	12,458	68,519	375	188	$ 411,113,227,454
2017	43.4	28,903	158,964	14,451	79,482	436	218	$ 476,891,343,847
2018	50.3	33,527	184,398	16,763	92,199	505	253	$ 553,193,958,863
2019	58.3	38,891	213,902	19,446	106,951	586	293	$ 641,704,992,281
2020	67.7	45,114	248,126	22,557	124,063	680	340	$ 744,377,791,046
2021	78.5	52,332	287,826	26,166	143,913	789	394	$ 863,478,237,613
2022	91.1	60,705	333,878	30,353	166,939	915	457	$ 1,001,634,755,631
2023	105.6	70,418	387,299	35,209	193,649	1,061	531	$ 1,161,896,316,532
2024	122.5	81,685	449,267	40,842	224,633	1,231	615	$ 1,347,799,727,177
2025	142.1	94,754	521,149	47,377	260,575	1,428	714	$ 1,563,447,683,525
2026	164.9	109,915	604,533	54,958	302,267	1,656	828	$ 1,813,599,312,890
2027	191.3	127,502	701,258	63,751	350,629	1,921	961	$ 2,103,775,202,952
2028	221.9	147,902	813,460	73,951	406,730	2,229	1,114	$ 2,440,379,235,424
2029	257.3	171,566	943,613	85,783	471,807	2,585	1,293	$ 2,830,839,913,092
2030	298.5	199,017	1,094,591	99,508	547,296	2,999	1,499	$ 3,283,774,299,187
	Total:	1,395,371	7,674,538	697,685	3,837,269			$ 23,023,613,669,104

Note the last line under the number of 1.5mW turbines needed assuming an 18% capacity factor (50% of the time). That's 7.7 MILLION turbines. The per day, look at the year 2030. That's 3000 turbines completed and opperational EVER DAY for that last year. And the total costs at $3M each? That's $23 TRILLION!

So anyone wish to make a bet the US can do this?

Wish to bet we can in Ontario?

Oh, but someone will complain. That 230gW is CAPACITY the US wants. No, they want 20% of their POWER to come from wind, so in fact to get that means a capacify factor that adds up to 230gW. Hence the larger number of turbines. Othewise what's the point of putting all that in place for only 18% of that 20% they are targeting?

Now, add to this these new reports on what is happening in the EU with wind and solar. Read them, you will be very interested in this as this is the path Ontario is on right now.

Wind Energy’s House of Cards
http://www.energytribune.com/articles.cfm/5131/Wind-Energys-House-of-Cards

WIND ENERGY THE CASE OF DENMARK
http://www.cepos.dk/fileadmin/user_upload/Arkiv/PDF/Wind_energy_-_the_case_of_Denmark.pdf

Germany's Solar Cell Promotion: Dark Clouds on the Horizon
http://repec.rwi-essen.de/files/REP_08_040.pdf

Note this at the end:

From a social welfare perspective, we therefore recommend the rapid reduction of
these subsidies, taking account of recent estimates of annual reductions in
production cost, which are on the order of 12% to 15%.

They are recommending the German Government stop their FIT program. Yet we are racing ahead with one.