Thursday, September 16, 2010


And most of it due to the Green Energy Act's Feed-in Tariff program so says a new report.

Ontario Electricity Total Bil Impact Analysis, August 2011 to July 2015 was prepared for the
Canadian Manufacturers & Exporters by Aegent Energy Advisors Inc.

It is available as a PDF on line here.

It is a must read.

For residential consumers they conclude:

Based on the forecast total unit cost increase and depending on the reference
unit cost, by early 2015, residential consumers would see their total unit cost
rise by 38% - 47% (over the significant increase already experienced in 2010).
This is equivalent to an average, annual, compounded increase of 6.7 - 8.0%
(again, over the significant increase already experienced in 2010).

For commercial consumers:

Based on the forecast total unit cost increase and depending on the reference
unit cost, by early 2015, non-residential consumers would see their total unit
cost rise by 47% - 64% (over the increase already experienced in 2010). This is
equivalent to an average, annual, compounded increase of 8.0% - 10.4% (again,
over the increase already experienced in 2010).

The cause of this increase is shown in the table on page 6 reproduced here:

Cumulative increase in Millions $

20112012201320142015% increase
Feed-In- Tariff (FIT)4819631,4442,6463,848700%
Renewable Energy Standard Offer Program (RESOP)-110220330330200%
Renewables (other)-73666961271%
Bruce Power (existing)1429435874429%
Bruce Power (new)-37740444346122%
Natural Gas5786111111192237%
Non-Utility Generators (NUGs)9419715825817081%
Conservation and Demand Management (COM)105187226265267154%
Distribution (non-Green Energy tlt)80163206249293266%
Distribution (Green Energy tlt)156310465615759387%

The cumulative total dollar increase from 2011 to early 2015 is $ 7.739 billion.
Note: The % increase was added, did not show in the original document.

Notice the Feed-In Tariff dominates the share of the increased costs of providing power. Include all costs of "green" energy combined and they take up 66% of the coming increase.

What is disturbing is this report claims, with justification, that demand will stay flat up and through 2015. So increased costs big time, more than $7 BILLION, but not more consumption.

Guess who is expected to pay for this.

With a 47-65% increase in power costs for business, that is going to drive business out of the province and at the same time increase the costs of every single item you buy that has this cost added in. Thus you, the consumer, are going to get a double whammy, as I predicted in the first month of this blog.


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