Thursday, December 2, 2010

In the future you will have less

Though Parker Gallant's post in the Financial Post was very enlighting on the blatant misrepresentation by the Government of Ontario's future power capacity, he missed an important aspect that needs to be included. The continued population increase of the province.

Population growth is 1.1% over the last 5 years. Thus adding 20 more years is a signifant increase in the population. Using that growth rate by 2030 the population could be as much as 16.5 million, up 24% from the current 13.2 million.

The current capacity per person is 35,000,000KWatts/13.2 million or 2.65 kW per person.

So using the government's numbers for the projected capacity, including "conservation", one gets 2.92kWatts per person. Sounds good, more people, more capacity, more per person too!

Except Parker's numbers tell a different story. By 2030 the ratio drops to 2.49KWatts per person, or a 7% drop from today.

It's actually worse than that because Parker used a 30% Capacity Factor for wind to drop the Government's wind capacity from 10,700MW to 3,300MW. But the Capacity Value is much less than that. 5%, or ZERO depending on how it's looked at. So removing wind altogether and we loose 3,300MW more, which brings the per person capacty down to 2.27KWatts. A drop of 17% per person of available power.

And, of course, you will be paying MORE for that drop in available power. And the utilities will demand even MORE to compensate for that loss of revenue due to forced demand destruction, forced, not by fundementals, but by government policy.

1 comment:

  1. This is why electrical companies have to go to the business model of more is they used to be in the past. The first xxx kwh cost 6 cents say, and anything over that it drops to 5 cents.
    Let's turn this environmental death cult around and get back to prosperity!

    Chris F


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